IATA Cuts Long-Term Air Travel Forecast

Slowing growth in China, the fastest growing market for air travel, will dampen global demand for air transport, IATA said as it cut its long-term forecast for global passenger numbers.

Concerns over the outlook for global economic growth have been looming large in recent months, prompting the heads of the world's 20 largest economies to warn this month that growth around the world was uneven and falling short of expectations.

A spate of terror attacks have also cast a pall over international travel, with security worries driving down airline and hotel stocks earlier this week.

"Economic and political events over the last year have impacted some of the fundamentals for growth," IATA's Director General Tony Tyler said in a statement.

IATA now expects the number of passengers to reach 7 billion by 2034, doubling from the 3.5 billion expected for 2015, with a 3.8 percent average annual growth rate.

The association, whose around 260 members account for 83 percent of global air traffic, previously saw passenger numbers rising by an average of 4.1 percent per year to 7.4 billion in 2034.

IATA pointed to slower economic growth expectations for China as the main reason for its downgrade, but said it was still the fastest growing market in terms of extra passengers and was set to overtake the United States as the world's largest passenger market by 2029. China will account for around 1.19 billion passengers by 2034.

Brazil and Russia meanwhile are struggling, IATA said, partly due to falling oil and commodity prices, while Russia is also feeling the effect of economic sanctions.

IATA is due to give an update on its outlook for airline profits in 2015 and 2016 on December 10. It currently forecasts global airline profits of USD$29.3 billion in 2015, almost double that of last year.