China To Top US Aviation Market By 2022

IATA forecasts a near doubling of air passengers over the next 20 years, and China to overtake the US as the largest aviation market by 2022.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in its 20-year Air Passenger Forecast that it expects 7.8 billion passengers to travel in 2036, up from 4 billion expected to fly this year.

IATA said the biggest driver of demand will be Asia-Pacific, with more than half the new passengers expected in that region. China will become the world’s largest aviation market two years earlier than expected, through a combination of slightly faster Chinese growth and slightly reduced growth in the US.

India will rise to third place, and Indonesia to fourth as the UK drops to fifth. The drop in European countries’ rankings also applies to France and Italy, dipping to 11th and 12th respectively, as Europe grows at an expected rate of 2.3 percent per year to 1.5 billion passengers.

The biggest regional growth will be in Africa, IATA said, with an annual increase of 5.9 percent expected, taking the total to 400 million passengers in 2036, an increase of 274 million.

The Middle East will be second in annual growth terms with 5.0 percent, adding 322 million passengers a year to 517 million in 2036.

Asia-Pacific will see an extra 2.1 billion passengers, a 4.6 percent annual increase to an overall market size of 3.5 billion.

North America will grow by a more modest 2.3 percent annually, carrying 1.2 billion passengers in 2036, up 452 million from current numbers.

“The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It’s fantastic news for innovation and prosperity… [but] it is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand,” IATA Director General Alexandre de Juniac said.