Silvio Berlusconi's election pledge of a patriotic rescue for Alitalia looks set to come back to haunt the Italian prime minister as hopes fade for a painless bailout to keep the airline afloat.
Campaigning for the April election, Berlusconi attacked plans to sell the Italian airline to Air France as humiliating. That deal was called off, but Alitalia now faces a far worse scenario -- thousands of job cuts and perhaps even bankruptcy.
While a strong majority in parliament means Berlusconi's coalition is not at risk, the magnate faces the prospect of a showdown with unions and transport strikes that could overshadow successes such as resolving a Naples garbage crisis, analysts say.
A plan to rescue the state-controlled carrier being drawn up is expected to suggest a bankruptcy filing and cutting 40 percent of its work force. Berlusconi denies any bankruptcy plans but has conceded "sacrifices", ie, job cuts, will be required.
"Whatever plan he puts forward is going to put 5,000 people out of a job, and he'll have to take a lot of flak from unions, the far left and some of his own people," said James Walston, politics professor at the American University of Rome. "When it's combined with strikes, he's going to have a hot autumn."
Burdened with high costs, strikes and inefficiencies, Alitalia has posted a profit only four times in the past 15 years. It now also faces high oil prices and a drop in bookings.
Some analysts predict it will run out of cash after year-end without new funds -- and that's despite an emergency loan from the government in April to prevent bankruptcy.
Notorious for their crippling strikes, Alitalia's powerful unions thwarted the sale to Air France-KLM in April over the prospect of far fewer job cuts than those being discussed today. They have already begun making fresh threatening noises.
"If the situation demands it, (we are ready for) immediate mobilization, even at the height of summer," said the SDL union that represents a majority of flight attendants, warning of strikes in early September if mass layoffs are announced.
"Berlusconi should let us know if his statements were just part of an election campaign or if there is anything concrete and real to it."
Wary of taking on the unions, successive Italian governments have preferred to pump more taxpayer money into Alitalia rather than letting it go bust like peers Swissair and Belgium's Sabena airline.
Observers say a collapse of the national airline coupled with protests and transport chaos would be especially bad news for image-conscious Berlusconi, who named Alitalia one of two "national emergencies" he would tackle on taking office, the other being the rubbish crisis in Naples.
The Italian opposition is also seizing the opportunity to blame Berlusconi for Alitalia's predicament, noting that his jingoistic rhetoric helped unravel the sale to Air France-KLM.
"Bankruptcy would be a failure attributable to Berlusconi," said leftist lawmaker Enrico Letta, adding that "workers and travellers would be the first to pay the consequences".
On the other hand, consumer groups are attacking Berlusconi for letting taxpayers foot the bill for Alitalia's woes, with one group re-christening Berlusconi's "I love Italy, I fly Alitalia" slogan to "Alitalia flies, Italy pays."
With Berlusconi's optimistic rhetoric on Alitalia finding few takers these days, others joined in the lampooning as well.
"I love Italy but don't fly Alitalia. Why? Because I love myself," said Francesco Cossiga, an Italian senator for life.